Business Systems And Process / Operations Management

BSS001-2 Business Systems and Process/Operations Management ASSIGNMENT – INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT (Databases) I. A Database is a collection of information that is organized so that it can be easily accessed, updated and managed. Databases can be classified in order to the type of the content: full-text, bibliographic, images and numeric. For any organisation a database in needed to track information about people, clients, including people who support or who might support their programs and services. To manage such information can be crucial but a database allows you to use an incredible variety of information very easily. Some benefits of using a database are that: The database is storing information in electronic records that can be†¦show more content†¦The product catalogue will be held by the product database comprising product names, description, price, product availability, delivery time and customer reviews. The customer database will hold accounts with addresses, payment information, order history, aiming at improving service, increasing personalization and reducing transaction costs (Da Silveira, 2003). This would definitely reduce customer ordering time thanks to the information possessed in the database. With a good database they can analyse customer behaviour and perception, and provide recommendation about improvement concerning the online business (on the website; i.e. customisation of pages, promotions; or delivery network etc). II. Now a day’s Data Mining tools for Customer Relationship Management are used by several industries including banking, finance, retail, insurance, telecommunications, database marketing, sales forecasting, telecommunications, etc. Data mining is often referred to as â€Å"analytical intelligence† and is helping organizations for a better view of their business, to understand their customer needs and increase the effectiveness of the organization in the long run. The retail industry that is utilizing data mining can gain competitive advantage against the others that don’t. For retailers, data mining can be used to provide information on product sales trends, customer buying habits and preferences. The data mining approach is complementary

The Impact of Inflation on Share Prices of Tobacco Industry - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 15 Words: 4354 Downloads: 1 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Analytical essay Did you like this example? 1.1 Overview The economies of the world highly depend on the environment and surrounding. These include various economic and social factors as well, which affect the businesses. The share price of any firm is also dependent on such variables beside a companys own profitability and performances. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "The Impact of Inflation on Share Prices of Tobacco Industry" essay for you Create order In past researches, it has been observed that the rate of inflation is inversely proportional to the share prices in developing countries, while this relationship is somewhat neutral in developed countries such as USA and UK, Lessard (1980) suggested. In any case, there has been a long-term impact of inflation on stock prices. 1.2 Research Problem Inconsistent behavior of stock market and share price has been observed in different countries with respect to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Furthermore, type of industry is another factor which results in variation of the behavior. This study analyzes the impact inflation (CPI) accounts for, specifically on the share price of tobacco industry of KSE-100 index in Pakistan. 1.3 Hypotheses H1: CPI Predicts Share Price for Pakistan Tobacco. H2: CPI Predicts Share Price for Lakson Tobacco. H3: CPI Causes Share Price for Pakistan Tobacco. H4: CPI Causes Share Price for Lakson Tobacco. H5: CPI of Today explains the CPI of future. H6: Todays Share Prices of Pakistan Tobacco explain the future share prices of Pakistan Tobacco. H7: Todays Share Prices of Lakson Tobacco explain the future share prices of Lakson Tobacco. 1.4 Outline of the Study The research studies the impact of consumer price index (CPI) on the share price of tobacco industry in Pakistan. The research also studies the positive or negative impact of inflation, and the extent to which inflation affects the share prices of KSE-100 index tobacco companies. 1.5 Definitions Consumer Price Index (CPI) Price index is used for measuring inflation. It measures price level with respect to a selected base year. There are different kinds indices used for measuring inflation. Consumer price index (CPI), sensitive price index (SPI), and wholesale price index (WPI) are used in Pakistan. This research is based on consumer price index (CPI) which measures the price level at retail level, directly impacting the consumers spending and saving behavior. CPI in Pakistan is calculated using retail prices of 374 items in 35 cities. CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW Several authors have previously analyzed the relationship between inflation and share prices. Cohn and Lessard (1980) found that there is a negative relationship between nominal inflation and share prices in many countries. From investors point of view, it is hard to trace the factors which are playing influencing part along with inflation in changing the stock market behavior. It was also found that factors including change in risk-free rate which affects long term earnings, variation in risk premium, and the variation in actual growth. It was also observed that there were systematic errors at investors end while calculating stock prices when there was high inflation. Crosby and Otto (2000) analyzed inflation and its impact on capital stock using time-series data of many countries, and found that there is a long-term impact of inflation on capital stock in most countries where inflation is not super neutral. In most cases, it was quite difficult to trace any relationship bet ween the two when there is neutral inflation behavior in a country. It also revealed that most economists consider a negative relationship between stock market and inflation. The reason for such behavior is due to inclusion of both public and private stock in analysis, while both stocks usually have different responses to the inflation. Inclusion of both created a thin line between near-to-none relation and a positive long-term impact. It was suggested that individual countries must be analyzed first, reason stated, different factors are exclusive to countries which accounted as one of the reason. Interest, taxation, and impact of other economic factors on capital markets including private and public, can be treated separately and differences can be identified for a reliable analysis. Garber (1982) argued that the hyperinflation in Germany resulted in some transition costs which were the results of non-subsidizing of investments in private sector. Similar behaviors from state authorities lead to a positive relationship among private stocks and the inflation. Furthermore, different treatments of tax departments nominal interest deductions and depreciation often results in such relationship between the two variables within a country. Durre and Giot (2005) used Fed model to test the relationship between stock prices, earnings, and interest rates while aiming at the possibility of a long-term relationship. Fed model relates the government bond yield of 10 years with stock yield. It also argued the theoretical flaws of the model, and arrived at opinion that it does not take into account the issue of inflation illusion correctly. Therefore, its result incorrectly show lowered stock prices with the increase in inflation. While on the other hand, low inflation results in higher Price-to-earnings ratio. During the analysis of 13 countries by Durre and Giot (2005), results showed that there is undoubtedly a long-term relationship among earnings, stock prices , and bond yield in more developed countries such as United States and United Kingdom. But, the bond yields relationship is not considerably significant, and therefore it does not affect stock market equilibrium significantly. Considering the short term impact, a relationship between stock returns and bond yield was found. It was due to the reason that most analyst emphasize on valuation ratios such as price-to-earnings ratio. Argument that low earning yields and high stock prices are the result of low interest rates was proved wrong. Examining the relationship among macroeconomic variables and stock market, Adam and Tweneboah (2008) revealed that macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rates, net foreign direct investment and exchange rate have a significant impact on share prices in the long run. This long-run analysis was tested using Johansens multivariate co-integration test. It also revealed the positive correlation between inflation and share prices. Similar fi ndings were from Anari and Kolari (2001) where results also revealed that stock market provides hedge against inflation, while long-term relation was evident among inflation and share prices. Comparing interest rates, FDI, exchange rate and inflation as an impacting factor on share prices, as tested by Adam and Tweneboah (2008), the interest rates affects the share prices more significantly than inflation and therefore it was an indicator for investors to pay attention on interest rates. Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rates impact were next in line. CPIs impact is minimal when compared to those macroeconomic variables. Analysis of relation between inflation and real stock returns by Day (1984) showed a consistent negative correlation between the two variables. It argued that inflation is directly created and controlled by economys supply of money by government. Analyzed was the market with equilibrium and rational investors. The opinion varied when it studied the relat ion of other economic factors and relationship beyond just inflation and asset pricing. The model suggests the variability in asset pricing and it implies that consumption and investment decision of a firm results in variability in consumption which is lower than the total output. The rational expectations and market efficiency were seen consistent with the variability of asset prices. Fama (1981) is of the opinion that there is a negative relationship between share prices and inflation. It argued that this is because of a prominent negative linkage among inflation and real activity. While, positive relation is found between share prices and real activity. Since the 3 variables are linked to each other, the final share prices and inflation have an inverse relation. Later the evidence is mixed when negative coefficient turns insignificant in the regression after base money growth is also added to the model. Nevertheless, the share prices always reacted negatively to the inflation. On the other hand, the movement of share prices is considered positive with inflation since returns from real assets are claimed to be real returns. Therefore, the shares are considered a hedge against inflation. Kool and Hafer (1986) research based on the findings of Fama (1981) and argued that negativity of stock prices and inflation is because of a inverse correlation between unexpected inflation and the output. Evaluating the post-1950 period it is found that real activity has an impact on share prices and the impact of inflation on share prices is quite different from zero. Post 1980 results favor the Fama Hypothesis. While, the results from pre-1950 period goes straight in favor of orthodox theory where a positive correlation between real activity and stock returns noticed dominating the inflation impact and future activity. New York Stock Exchange Index declined by 68 percent during 1965 to 1981, and the dividends and returns were fallen close to zero during the period . As suggested by Fama (1981), the higher inflation rate is the main reason that caused such downfall in the market. It was also observed that tax system was also to be blamed for higher inflation which resulted in share price issue. Feldstein and Martin (1980) also argued that tax system is somehow responsible for the inflation. Historic cost method of depreciation and capital gain taxation are the factors which cause the stock returns to fall with the increase in inflation. While, it also decreases the value of the debt a firm holds, and therefore the return on bonds are also reduced. The expectation of increase in tax and inflation has an effect to some extent on share prices. Another reason was debated by Malkiel (1979) suggesting that the decline of Stock Exchange in USA occurred while there was an evident risk of capital investments during 1970s. It shows that impact on a firms capital due to gross marginal return increased after 1965 which also resulted in the riskiness of investor returns from holding stocks. Increase volatility of stock returns is also observed which shows the variance of return on NYSE Index. During the period, variance continued to increase, and this fluctuations caused variation in firms gross marginal return on capital and increment in variance of inflation as well. Unforeseen events, such as, fluctuations in regulatory, exchange rate, and competition of market players, that affect capital gains and losses are usually unrealized. Thus, it makes it difficult to measure the return on capital smoothly. But, the variance can still be calculated from the data available at stock markets. Malkiel is of the opinion that whatever these fluctuations do, but it definitely affect the business environment and makes it more uncertain. Fama (1981) results also points indirectly to the correlation real economic variables and gross marginal return on capital. The volatility of gross return is linked to the volatility of inflation, which h as a negative correlation with returns when unanticipated. On another end, volatility is also responsible for riskiness of bonds. Though, it is unclear if this volatility increases the share value while making bonds riskier, and not the other parameters such as tax rates. Pindyck (1983) found that behaviour of gross marginal return on capital is the actual reason affecting share prices. Analysis discusses that there are controversies regarding the variance since results showed it doubled while other authors are of the opinion that expectation of return fell. The two changes actually depend on how investors consider this risk and make decisions accordingly, analysis suggests. Developed model is simple and only utilized asset returns, asset demands, and share prices. Though, the model limiting factors were known to be reliance on rational share valuation, income streams in consumption, and consideration of only two assets in portfolios. Use of a partial equilibrium framework was al so another limiting factor. These limitations made it difficult to analyze the results but to an appreciable extent, it proved that share price increases when there is an increase in capital stock, while there is a negative relation between inflation and returns. Investors perception of risk is another issue Pindyck considers difficult to measure. Analysis emphasized that it can be measured to a good acceptable level using sample variance of stock market returns, but the use of survey data is even better in measuring it. Analysis also argued that non-negligible probability of economic catastrophe makes the capital risky even if the volatility in stock returns does not exist. Subhani (2010) found that there is a relationship between KSE-100 Index and CPI. Though, the relationship is negative. Analysis also found that it is participants perception which causes inconsistent effect to trading. Participants response to the CPI announcements varies and causes declining trade volume variably. Schwert (1981) analyzed daily stock returns and concluded that any unexpected inflation or a negative news regarding stock market reacts in a negative response from stock market as well. Meaning, if inflation rises, the stock price falls. Feldstein (1983) found that higher inflation rate results in decreasing ratio of share prices to before-tax earnings. The main factors that cause it are historic-cost depreciation and the increasing tax on capital gains. Both factors, caused by inflation, decrease the return on capital. It also revealed that investors are often responding differently to tax related news, and at times the share prices fall even if the demand price per share is increased by inflation. CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODS 3.1 Method of Data Collection Secondary data was used for conducting this research. Data of consumer price index (CPI) was collected from Federal Bureau of Statistics (statpak.gov.pk) and Economic survey of Pakistan. Share prices of Pakistan Tobacco Company and Lakson Tobacco Company was collected from ksestocks.com and Taurus Securities, a capital management firm. 3.2 Sample Size A sample of 238 observations has been used in the study. Monthly consumer price index from January 1991 to October 2010 has been used. CPI is taken as base year set to 1991. While daily share price of tobacco companies were converted into monthly averages for the same period. Yearly data with 20 observations was analyzed to compare the results with monthly analysis. 3.3 Research Model Same model is used for predicting the share price of Pakistan Tobacco Company and Lakson Tobacco. SPÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯ = ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯) + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²2(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯2) + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²3(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯3) + ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µ Where, SP is Share Price of the company, INF is rate of inflation, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯ is selected case, ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± is constant, and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ µ is error. Models for both companies were developed for two scenarios, data without auto-correlation, and data having auto-correlation. Auto-correlation was removed by applying square root on rate of inflation and share prices, and log transformation on transformed variables. Removal of auto-correlation resulted in following models. Model for Pakistan Tobacco: (Yearly) SPPakTobacco = -0.444 + 0.161(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯) + 0.469(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯2) + 0.073(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯3) (Monthly) SPPakTobacco = -0.440 + 0.360(INFà Æ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯) + 0.443(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯2) 0.440(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯3) Model for Lakson Tobacco: (Yearly) SPLaksonTobacco = 0.002 + 1.398(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯) 0.008(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯2) 0.220(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯3) (Monthly) SPLaksonTobacco = 0.048 + 1.428(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯) 0.040(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯2) 0.225(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯3) Auto-correlation was present in non-transformed variables. Following models were created when auto-correlation was not removed. Model for Pakistan Tobacco: (Yearly) SPPakTobacco = 258.940 2.986(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯) + 0.012(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯2) 0.000001(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯3) (Monthly) SPPakTobacco = 242.534 2.654(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯) + 0.010(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯2) 0.000001(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯3) Model for Lakson Tobacco: (Yearly) SPLaksonTobacco = 725.421 11.521(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯) + 0.054(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯2) 0.0000068(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯3) (Monthly) SPLaksonTobacco = 424.803 7.050(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯) + 0.035(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯2) 0.0000043(INFÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ¯3) 3.4 Statistical Technique Statistical technique used in this research is Cubic Regression. Data is transformed into new variable with square root transformation, and then log transformation on that transformed variable, to remove the auto-correlation. Two variables are taken into account for each model and share price of both tobacco companies are predicted separately. Having said this, two variables used in each model are share price and rate of inflation, both are having cubic relation. CHAPTER 4: RESULTS 4.1 Findings and Interpretation of the results Yearly Data Analysis was first done on yearly data and then on monthly data. Data had to be transformed since it was not following normal distribution and to remove auto-correlation. Table 4.1.1 Tests of Normality Kolmogorov-Smirnova Shapiro-Wilk Statistic df Sig. Statistic df Zscore(t_cpi) .079 20 .200* .981 20 Zscore(t_pakt) .091 20 .200* .974 20 Zscore(t_lakt) .157 20 .200* .943 20 Sig values of Shapiro-Wilk suggest that data is normal. Pakistan Tobacco Table 4.1.2 Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate .741 .550 .465 27.029 Table 4.1.3 ANOVA Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Regression 14275.152 3 4758.384 6.513 Residual 11689.029 16 730.564 Total 25964.180 19 With the presence of auto-correlation, model summary suggests that cpi explains 55% of share price for Pakistan Tobacco. The suggested model is also considered fit since sig value in ANOVA table is less than 0.05 Table 4.1.4 Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate .624 .390 .276 .851 Table 4.1.5 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Regression 7.409 3 2.470 3.409 Residual 11.591 16 .724 Total 19.000 19 After applying transformation, cpi explains 39% of share price for Pakistan Tobacco, while the model is considered fit. But, the sig value in ANOVA table is not far below 0.05. Lakson Tobacco Table 4.1.6 Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square .947 .897 .877 Table 4.1.7 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Regression 363646.177 3 121215.392 46.359 Residual 41835.309 16 2614.707 Total 405481.485 19 With auto-correlation presence, consumer price index explains 89.7% of share price for Lakson Tobacco. Sig value of ANOVA is also less than 0.05. Therefore, the model is considered fit. Table 4.1.8 Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate .940 .884 .862 .372 Table 4.1.9 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Regression 16.787 3 5.596 40.452 Residual 2.213 16 .138 Total 19.000 19 After auto-correlation is removed, cpi explained 88% of share price for Lakson Tobacco. The model is also considered fit since the sig value is less than 0.05. Table 4.1.10 Correlations Zscore(t_cpi) Zscore(t_pakt) Zscore(t_cpi) Pearson Correlation 1 .309 Sig. (2-tailed) .184 N 20 20 Pearson Correlation suggests that there is a high correlation between Lakson Tobacco share price and CPI. But the correlation is not prominent between cpi and share price of Pakistan Tobacco. Monthly Data Raw data did not have normality while auto-correlation was present. Data was transformed using square root and log transformation which converted the data into normal distribution and auto-correlation was removed. Table 4.1.11 Tests of Normality Kolmogorov-Smirnova Shapiro-Wilk Statistic df Sig. Statistic df Zscore(ln_sqrt_cpi1991) .055 238 .081 .977 238 Zscore(ln_sqrt_PakTobaccoSharePrice) .055 238 .078 .974 238 Zscore(ln_sqrt_LaksonTobaccoSharePrice) .148 238 .000 .950 238 Kolmogorov-Smirnov suggests that consumer price index and share price of Pakistan Tobacco is normal. The mean and median for share prices of Lakson Tobacco fell close, and within the range of 5%. Therefore, it was considered for further statistical tests. Pakistan Tobacco Table 4.1.12 Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate .708 .501 .494 27.575 Table 4.1.13 ANOVA Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Regression 178539.001 3 59513.000 78.265 Residual 177934.110 234 760.402 Total 356473.111 237 With the presence of auto-correlation, Model Summary suggested that rate of inflation explains 50% of share price for Pakistan Tobacco, while the model is also considered fit since sig value of ANOVA is less than 0.05. Table 4.1.14 Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate .611 .373 .365 .797 Table 4.1.15 ANOVA Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Regression 88.485 3 29.495 46.472 Residual 148.515 234 .635 Total 237.000 237 After applying transformations, which removed the auto-correlation, Model Summary for share price of Pakistan Tobacco and rate of inflation reveals that rate of inflation explains 37% of share price for Pakistan Tobacco. Having considered this, it does not actually cause the share price in the market. Sig value of ANOVA table is less than 0.05, which means that regression model for predicting share price of Pakistan Tobacco is suitable. Lakson Tobacco Table 4.1.16 Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate .853 .728 .724 78.413 Table 4.1.17 ANOVA Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Regression 3847422.758 3 1282474.253 208.578 Residual 1438786.372 234 6148.660 Total 5286209.129 237 The presence of auto-correlation in share prices of Lakson Tobacco revealed that the rate of inflation explains 72% of the share price for Lakson Tobacco. While, the model is considered fit having the sig value of less than 0.05 in ANOVA table. Table 4.1.18 Model Summary R R Square Adjusted R Square .928 .861 .859 Table 4.1.19 ANOVA Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Regression 204.119 3 68.040 484.213 Residual 32.881 234 .141 Total 237.000 237 After the removal of auto-correlation, rate of inflation explains 86% of share price for Lakson Tobacco. Comparing with Pakistan Tobacco, Lakson Tobacco is more responsive to rate of inflation in the economy. ANOVA table having sig value of 0.000, which is less than 0.05, states that regression model is suitable for predicting share price of Lakson Tobacco. Beside rate of inflation, other economic factors indeed impact the behavior of stock market. Therefore, CPI alone is not considered a significant predictor of share prices for tobacco industry in Pakistan. Table 4.1.20 Correlations Zscore(ln_sqrt_cpi1991) Zscore(ln_sqrt_PakTobaccoSharePrice) Zscore(ln_sqrt_cpi1991) Pearson Correlation 1 .327** Sig. (2-tailed) .000 N 238 238 Pearson correlation reveals that there is a positive correlation between consumer price index and share price of tobacco industry, but this relation is not very prominent. While, on the other hand correlation between consumer price index and share price of Lakson Tobacco is strong and positive. Auto-correlation test for consumer price index (CPI), share price of Pakistan Tobacco, and share price of Lakson Tobacco, tested with 16-lags, have auto-correlation value between 0.5 and 1, while sig value is 0.000 through-out the cases. It states that todays CPI, share price of Pakistan Tobacco, and share price of Lakson Tobacco explain the future rate and prices for at least 16 months. Study of monthly and annual data resulted in no considerable variations. Therefore, results are considered having similar beh avior among monthly and annual analysis. Figure 4.1.1 Figure 4.1.1 reveals the trend of share prices of Pakistan Tobacco and Lakson Tobacco. It suggests that Pakistan Tobacco prices with relation to the CPI, raised in the beginning. It fell, and then again increased at the end. While, the Lakson Tobacco started to rise late, and fell after very short span of time. Trend of both companies are showing growth in recent past, but at lower level. 4.2 Hypotheses Assessment Summary Yearly Hypotheses B1 B2 B3 Sig Result CPI Predicts Share Price for Pakistan Tobacco. .161 .469 0.073 .043 Accepted CPI Predicts Share Price for Lakson Tobacco. 1.398 -.008 -0.220 .000 Accepted CPI Causes Share Price for Pakistan Tobacco. .161 .469 0.073 .043 Rejected CPI Causes Share Price for Lakson Tobacco. 1.398 -.008 -0.220 .000 Rejected Hypotheses Autocorrelation (16 lags) Sig Result CPI of Today explains the CPI of future. .772 x -.370 (for Lag1) (for Lag16) .000 Accepted Todays Share Prices of Pakistan Tobacco explain the future share prices of Pakistan Tobacco. .667 x -.005 (for Lag1) (for Lag16) .000 Accepted Todays Share Prices of Lakson Tobacco explain the future share prices of Lakson Tobacco. .867 x -.263 (for Lag1) (for Lag16) .000 Accepted Monthly Hypotheses B1 B2 B3 Sig Result CPI Predicts Share Price for Pakistan Tobacco. .360 .443 -0.440 .000 Accepted CPI Predicts Share Price for Lakson Tobacco. 1.428 -.040 -0.225 .000 Accepted CPI Causes Share Price for Pakistan Tobacco. .360 .443 -0.440 .000 Rejected CPI Causes Share Price for Lakson Tobacco. 1.428 -.040 -0.225 .000 Rejected Hypotheses Autocorrelation (16 lags) Sig Result CPI of Today explains the CPI of future. .979 x .697 (for Lag1) (for Lag16) .000 Accepted Todays Share Prices of Pakistan Tobacco explain the future share prices of Pakistan Tobacco. .977 x .503 (for Lag1) (for Lag16) .000 Accepted Todays Share Prices of Lakson Tobacco explain the future share prices of Lakson Tobacco. .983 x .712 (for Lag1) (for Lag16) .000 Accepted CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSIONS, CONCLUSION, IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH 5.1 Conclusion The research found that there is a positive correlation between consumer price index and share price of tobacco industry in Pakistan. Consumer price index does explain the share price for Pakistan Tobacco and Lakson Tobacco, but it only predicts the portion of it. Other economic factors are also responsible for the change, and that is the reason CPI does not cause the share prices alone. Study revealed that current trend of tobacco industry in stock market explains the future trends. 5.2 Discussion Various studies analyzed that there is a negative relationship between stock market and inflation, while there were many economies there was positive relation, but in both cases, the relationship was prominent in long-term. Consumer price index in Pakistan has a direct impact on consumers as well as businesses, and it has been a key issue for couple of decades. The reason for relatively different impact of inflation on stock market in Pakistan when compared to other economies of the world is behavior of people towards inflation. Increasing inflation results in increase in price of commodities that should have an impact, but it also affects non-related commodities and industries. Inflation and share value of every month has links with the values of past and future. Thus, it also reveals that the change of rates and prices are not only affected by the economic factors, but the values itself are predictors of the values of future. 5.3 Implications and Recommendations Analysis and model of this research can be a good use for financial analysis and researches. It not only helps in studying the relationship between inflation and stock market, but also helps in investing decisions for investors willing to buy shares. For better and more accurate predictions, other economic factors must also be included in the research, making the analysis and investing decisions more reliable for investors and consultants. 5.4 Future Research This research provides a base for predicting share prices of tobacco industry in Pakistan with response to the change in rate of inflation. Share price for other industries and companies can also be predicted using the developed model. Other economic factors can also be included in the research in future, to predict the stock market behavior more accurately. REFERENCES Adam, A. M., Tweneboah, G. (2008). Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Movement: Evidence from Ghana. MPRA Paper, 11256. Anari, A., Kolari, J. (2001). Stock prices and inflation. Journal of Financial Research, 24, 587-602. Cohn, R. A., Lessard, D. R. (1980). The Effect of Inflation on Stock Prices: International Evidence, 11470. Crosby, M., Otto, G. (2000). Inflation and Capital Stock. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 32, 236-253. Day, T. E. (1984). Real Stock Returns and Inflation. The Journal of Finance, 39, 493-512. Durre, A., Giot, P. (2005). An international analysis of earnings, stock prices and bond yields. National Bank of Belgium, 200509-1. Erb,C. B., Harvey, C. R., Viskanta, T. E. (1995). Inflation and World Equity Selection. Financial Analyst Journal, 51, 25-42. Fama, E. F. (1981). Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation and Money. American Economic Review, 71, 545-565. Feldstein, M. (1980). Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market . Journal of Monetary Economics, 6, 309-331. Feldstein, M. (1983). Inflation and the Stock Market. Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, University of Chicago Press, 186-198. Garber., Peter. (1982). Transition from Inflation to Price Stability. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 16, 11-42. Kook, C. J. M., Haffer, R. W. (1988). Stock Prices, Inflation and Real Activity: A Test of the Fama Hypothesis. Federal Reserve Bank Research Dept, 1986-001B. Malkiel, B. G. (1979). The Capital Formation Problem in the United States. The Journal of Finance, 34, 291-306. Pindyck. (1983). Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1186. Schwert, G.W. (1981). The adjustment of stock prices to information about inflation. Journal of Finance, 36, 15-29. Subhani, M. I., Osman, A., Gul, A. (2010). Relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and KSE-100 Index Trading Volume in Pakistan and Finding the Endogeneity in t he Involved Data. Iqra University Research Centre IURC.

Roles and Responsibilities of a Tutor Free Essays

The roles, responsibilities and boundaries of a tutor within the FE/adult education sector are ever progressing qualities which are reflected upon using the teaching cycle. This cycle can be used by both tutor and learner as discussed in ‘Prepare to teach in the lifelong learning sector’ – Ann Gravells 3rd Edition. Roles 1. We will write a custom essay sample on Roles and Responsibilities of a Tutor or any similar topic only for you Order Now 0 The role of a tutor is to create a safe and healthy learning environment, where learners are able to work at their individual level. This is backed up by the use of initial assessment upon induction to the course. This will allow the tutor to pinpoint who may eed additional support through one to one support and extra tutorials. I, as the tutor will be teaching the subject effectively following the scheme of work, ensuring the aims and objectives are met. Continual assessment throughout the course will aid learner progression and also allow learners to re-evaluate their own development. Also by using learning style questionnaires like ‘Fleming 1987’ the tutor is able to teach using various learning styles such as, visual, auditory and kinaesthetic. This allows inclusive teaching and will develop learners and cover all of their specific needs. The utor is able to adapt the lesson plan to incorporate all students giving them a chance to become involved. Planning and preparation are key issues ‘By Failing To Prepare, You Are Preparing To Fail’ as quoted by Benjamin Franklin. You must decide what you want to achieve, plan and deliver you lesson accordingly. Targets need to be set, SMART targets should be used specific, measurable, achievable, realistic and time related. These targets will enhance learning and can be used by both learner and tutor. At the end of the session it is vital to evaluate the lesson with the learners, by re-capping the aims to see if they were fully chieved. Once this has been carried out it may mean a change to the following weeks session. My role is also an assessor, so I need to prepare learners for practical assessments and give thorough guidance on the set criteria. Learners are encouraged to self assess giving them the opportunity to evaluate their own progression. Feedback is given on a one to one, the learner is given praise regardless whether the result is a pass or fail. This is to ensure learners are encouraged and never feel downhearted, this in turn will boost moral and motivate the learners to succeed further. Responsibilities 2. My responsibilities are very important, I have a duty of care to provide a safe environment and conduct risk assessments on learners and follow them up with an action plan. During practical session enforcing the correct use of personal protective equipment. I must ensure I keep an up to date register every session, this is essential to check learner attendance, achievement and also monitor progression. The awarding and funding bodies also need a record for their own evidence. Safeguarding learners, we carry out reviews every ten weeks and this involves covering Every Child Matters. Encouraging the learners to say how they stay safe, healthy and how they enjoy and achieve. The safeguarding policy we have in place not only covers our learners but also covers tutors. Teaching all learners with equal respect regardless of their sex, race, religion or ability and promote equality and diversity to all learners within their lessons. This also allows the tutor to incorporate differentiation within the session. Planning, ensuring that I am following the scheme of work and the course content is clear but also meets the needs of the individual learner. This also means turning up efore the learners do and making sure all resources are prepared and you have taken into account any materials being used are suitable for all learning styles. Data protection is an essential part of my responsibility as learners upon induction give information about themselves and this is to remain confidential at all times. Information about other staff members must not be passed on to learners as part of the data protection act. Standardising practise with other colleagues through attending standardisation meetings are vital to ensure practises are met and that all work is being marked to the correct standard. Homework handed in, is marked and returned within a reasonable time and any feedback and praise is constructive. Above all self control is extremely important, be prepared for confrontation and negativity but to answer or handle the issues calmly. Acting, dressing and speaking in an appropriate manner at all times as learners look to you as a role model to follow. Boundaries 3. 0 As tutors,we have professional boundaries which we must work within and it is very important not to over step those boundaries. You must be able to identify where the role of a tutor stops and remain there. As a tutor I must keep to standards and work within egulations set by the awarding body. Contact with learners should be kept to a professional level at all times, this means when contacting learners for assessments or to provide information to them it should be done using company mobiles or emails. Safeguarding yourself while using social networking sites having no learners on your profile, this protects both you as a tutor and the learner. Confidentiality of learners should be treated with respect, but the learner needs to be informed that although they have told you this information, you may have to refer it to a professional. Conclusion 4. 0  This is a brief description of my roles, responsibilities and boundaries as a tutor within the FE/adult education sector. These are the most important issues to be able to carry out the role successfully and help learners progress. By using a skills audit for my own work I am able to identify that I can demonstrate my skills effectively and should use the audit to reflect, although I know personally that within the areas of numeracy and literacy skills my weakest skill is numeracy. I have been using BBC Skills Wise website to help me develop my skills and give me the confidence to guide learners through their own issues with numeracy. How to cite Roles and Responsibilities of a Tutor, Essay examples Roles and Responsibilities of a tutor Free Essays This assignment discusses the functions and duties of a coach in the womb-to-tomb acquisition sector. It highlights the chief standards required to be a good coach within the instruction environment and the restrictions for this function. The assignment will give clear positions on the classs and criterions in which coachs have to show abilities these include: Knowledge and understanding Planning, learning and category direction Monitoring and appraisal Record maintaining Knowledge and apprehension: Coachs must be confident in the topic cognition they are traveling to learn. We will write a custom essay sample on Roles and Responsibilities of a tutor or any similar topic only for you Order Now This has to be the specialized topic you are qualified in. Planning, learning and category direction: Planing and planing of a lesson is a important and the? learning rhythm construct demand to be followed. These are: the purposes A ; principle, program lesson A ; expected result, bringing of lesson, assess larning against results, feedback A ; rating. Zaf – you must be careful with how you express your ideas. Besides – although you have now mentioned the Aims and Rationale – it is still non truly clear why these are so of import in relation to each scholar group. The aims of the lesson and its result must be visualised before the topic is taught, and it must be appropriate for the group. Learner ‘s demands are non to be ignored, and a Tutor must concentrate on the issues of equality and diverseness in the schoolroom, and every kid affairs ( ECM ) . i In the delivering of the lesson, a coach needs to take into history the different backgrounds, larning demands, and disablements of the scholars, extra stuff should be made available to all persons when required.i The presentation and executing of the lesson plays a cardinal function in scholar ‘s acquisition, as each person have different ways of larning. iThe resources used in the lesson, for illustration, PowerPoint, Flip Chart, and Wipe Board should be to the full utilized. Visual, auditory and practical acquisition manners guarantee the scholar to hold equal chances in larning. Tutorials and quizzes get the pupil interested and their attending? in the lesson therefore should be portion of the lessons. Changing types of lesson programs can bring forth involvement for the scholars ; and make an chance to measure the scholars apprehension of the topic. Contemplations of the lesson during the undermentioned hebdomad will enable the coach to acquire a sense of what pupils have learned and if methods are effectual. i Monitoring and Appraisal The initial interview and appraisal is the start of Learner / coach relationship. The Tutor will get down to larn what motivates the scholars to be a portion of this specific class. i The class and degree demands to be matched with the pupils ‘ abilities and the pervious accomplishment and cognition of the topic. The scholar ‘s ability should be assessed, in literacy, linguistic communication and numeracy accomplishments that may be applicable. This will assist place the strengths and failing of the scholar. i The Initial appraisal is besides used to inform the development of larning programs. iThe feedback from the assignments will besides assist measure the success of the lessons. It is really of import to do certain that the scholars inscribing for classs to the full understand what is required from them. iIt is a two manner system where the coach understands the scholar, and the scholar understands whether the class they are shiping on is the right 1 for them. ii Measuring the pupils larning against results, feedback and rating of the lesson is of import ; a coach could orient their following bringing in line with the feedback received from the pupils. iLessons including practical activities, tutorials, and quizzes are good manner to supervise scholar ‘s advancement throughout the class. i Coachs are committed to raise the criterion of scholars to accomplish better consequences. Assessment is the manner to guarantee the scholar ‘s advancement is on path, aid should be provided every bit shortly as the coach realises the scholar is holding troubles. i Marking is one signifier of supervising an appraisal, the twenty-four hours to twenty-four hours monitoring allows a coach to recognize when the pupils are holding troubles with the constructs a coach can so turn to these troubles. iThe appraisals of scholars must be continually monitored to analyze the advancement they are doing, and maintain the scholars informed, the feedback should be provided. i Record Keeping: The administrative duties of the coach is to maintain a registry for of the pupil ‘s attending ; records of accomplishment and profiles. These are the chief grounds for maintaining records: To supervise and be after in front ; ( session program ) i To inform internal and external examining organic structures ; i To show that the processs are being decently followed ; i To look into the attending of the pupils ; ( legal demand ) i To track pupil ‘s advancement and demands for excess support, this is to supply grounds for funding organic structures. i In the position of, ( Gravells A ; Simpson, pg.21. 2010 ) â€Å" All relevant information should be documented in the signifier of a program, normally called an person acquisition program ( ILP ) , this is besides known as action program † . i They note that the followers are good pattern when finishing an ILP. Involve your scholars, promote them to discourse their acquisition and support demands. Refer to the consequences of initial and diagnostic appraisals, and larning manners trials. Make sure they are single to each scholar ; there is no 1 size fits all. Express and communicate acquisition marks both verbally and in composing. ii Restrictions: There are restrictions to what a coach can make ; coachs should non supply reding or fiscal advice, for illustrations, lodging benefits, income support etc. They should mention scholars to an appropriate administration who deals with this sort of issues. i The limited clip and resources available to tutor hold to be considered. The cost of purchasing extra stuff makes it harder to assist the pupils in farther support in the lessons. As a coach, there are professional restrictions in topographic point such as non to supplying your phone figure ; the intent of these is to protect coachs from inappropriate contact. i Decision: It is clear that coachs have tonss of other duties other than merely fixing and learning. iTutors need to do certain every scholar demands are catered for, when planning, fixing and presenting the lesson. i All the records are on a regular basis checked, kept to day of the month, and are available to for analyzing and funding organic structures. Resources needed for the lesson are available to enable pupils to take part. i In the position of ( Tummons, 2007 pg.17 ) , â€Å" Much of the work done by the coach has to make with acquisition and instruction: preparing larning resource ; interceding with external testers ; taging assignment and entering the consequences. Then there are many things that do non truly look to be related to larning and learning at all, such as taking portion in selling and promotion activities, which besides come as portion of the coach ‘s function, as it is really important to procure enlisting for the undermentioned twelvemonth † . i How to cite Roles and Responsibilities of a tutor, Essay examples